2024: Year in Review

African countries weathered ongoing fiscal squeeze better than expected, with emerging shoots of economic recovery. Electoral jamboree delivered mixed results, while weak state capacity endures.

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I: African economies continued to slowly claw their way (in varied ways and rates) out of crises caused by recent global shocks.

The biggest economic issue at the start of 2024 was the fiscal squeeze facing African economies. As shown below, 2024 was a peak year in debt service obligations across the region and started with Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia already belly up and unable to service their debt. Notably, Kenya successfully avoided default despite its lumpy payment schedule — although not without going through a severe domestic political backlash. The best signal of recovery this year was that a number of countries (for example Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, and Nigeria) issued bonds that were oversubscribed and at tolerable sub 10% interest rates (even though still unreasonably high given their credit history). Overall, the crisis period appears to be over. De…