Fantastic write-up, Dr. Opalo. A rare mix of good news, bad news, and clear-eyed realism.
I especially agree with point #2.
I made a related write-up some time ago on the distribution of Africa’s mineral exports. The headline takeaway is simple: Africa is far less "resource-rich" than commonly assumed.
Not only that, many African countries have very little mineral endowment at scale (Rwanda, Burundi, Lesotho, Kenya, Malawi, The Gambia, Djibouti, and more) export very little in resources or export amounts too small to matter macroeconomically (like less than $10B annually). In fact, 70% of Africa's recorded resource exports annually just come from 8 countries: South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Libya, DRC, Ghana, and Guinea in that order.
Even within specific minerals, production is highly concentrated:
Phosphates: Morocco
Bauxite: Guinea
Manganese and platinum: overwhelmingly South Africa (with Gabon for manganese)
Copper: mainly the DRC and Zambia
Iron: South Africa & Mauritania
To put scale in perspective: Africa’s total copper ore exports in 2023 were about $4B. Peru alone exported roughly $20B, and Chile about $24B.
The same pattern holds for iron ore. South Africa and Mauritania dominate Africa’s output, yet Australia exports roughly 9× the entire African continent, and Brazil about 3×.
If more people left the mental trap of resource fetishism. policy and public knowledge in the continent could go in a better direction once one is more tethered to reality.
This is a very strong survey, especially the framing around the collapse of “organized hypocrisy.”
One thing I’d add is that what Africa is confronting may be less a world without norms than a transition to a system where power increasingly operates upstream of law and institutions.
In that environment, legality stops functioning as a stabilizer and becomes a tool which makes geopolitically exposed regions vulnerable not because they’re naive, but because the coordination logic itself has shifted.
Navigating that shift may require new forms of strategic legibility, not just better adherence to fading rules.
Having lived in East Africa, I am very aware that the continent cannot be regarded as a collective single entity. It used to be divided up along tribal lines but the European colonialists crossed those lines and divided artificial countries which are still the current divisions. Now under self-government that does give rise to internal disputes but, in the longer term, it should still be manageable. Climate across the continent varies materially and many groups of countries do cooperate for mutual benefit. It still needs considerable investment in utilities and communications to add to what has already been done. One of the problems it has to deal with is that much of the help already given came with political strings attached that will continue to cause trouble until removed. Drought, monsoon storms and starvation will remain a problem for a long time.
I've heard that bureaucratic, inhibiting regulations are part of what holds African countries back, particularly constraining entrepreneurship. Perhaps you've written on this previously. If not, I'd be interested in your perspective.
We cannot accurately measure economic growth in macro economic prices/vales. True economic progress is measured “physically” in the improvement of the material standard of living the population. Infrastructure, which was not emphasized in the article is the most essential physical input necessary for sustained economic growth.
Policy uncertainty is one of the biggest factors preventing investment from coming in. I personally know investors whose mines were seized by local business partners.
This also prevents investment in the downstream capacities. Local value addition regulations without proper infrastructure or consultation end up being a net loss (eg Zimbabwe with Lithium)
A lot of potential investment that could be headed to Africa ends up in much more expensive Australia and Canada. Which is a bit of a shame because African supply could really help stabilise some of these commodities.
Fantastic write-up, Dr. Opalo. A rare mix of good news, bad news, and clear-eyed realism.
I especially agree with point #2.
I made a related write-up some time ago on the distribution of Africa’s mineral exports. The headline takeaway is simple: Africa is far less "resource-rich" than commonly assumed.
https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/african-resources-and-commodity-markets?selection=853eb312-19aa-4d98-9ad6-b20316ec416d#:~:text=While%20the%20DRC%20exports%20over%2050%25%20of%20the%20cobalt%20market%2C%20that%20market%20is%20relatively%20small%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20%247
Not only that, many African countries have very little mineral endowment at scale (Rwanda, Burundi, Lesotho, Kenya, Malawi, The Gambia, Djibouti, and more) export very little in resources or export amounts too small to matter macroeconomically (like less than $10B annually). In fact, 70% of Africa's recorded resource exports annually just come from 8 countries: South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Libya, DRC, Ghana, and Guinea in that order.
Even within specific minerals, production is highly concentrated:
Phosphates: Morocco
Bauxite: Guinea
Manganese and platinum: overwhelmingly South Africa (with Gabon for manganese)
Copper: mainly the DRC and Zambia
Iron: South Africa & Mauritania
To put scale in perspective: Africa’s total copper ore exports in 2023 were about $4B. Peru alone exported roughly $20B, and Chile about $24B.
https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/copper-ore
The same pattern holds for iron ore. South Africa and Mauritania dominate Africa’s output, yet Australia exports roughly 9× the entire African continent, and Brazil about 3×.
https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/iron-ore
If more people left the mental trap of resource fetishism. policy and public knowledge in the continent could go in a better direction once one is more tethered to reality.
This is a very strong survey, especially the framing around the collapse of “organized hypocrisy.”
One thing I’d add is that what Africa is confronting may be less a world without norms than a transition to a system where power increasingly operates upstream of law and institutions.
In that environment, legality stops functioning as a stabilizer and becomes a tool which makes geopolitically exposed regions vulnerable not because they’re naive, but because the coordination logic itself has shifted.
Navigating that shift may require new forms of strategic legibility, not just better adherence to fading rules.
Having lived in East Africa, I am very aware that the continent cannot be regarded as a collective single entity. It used to be divided up along tribal lines but the European colonialists crossed those lines and divided artificial countries which are still the current divisions. Now under self-government that does give rise to internal disputes but, in the longer term, it should still be manageable. Climate across the continent varies materially and many groups of countries do cooperate for mutual benefit. It still needs considerable investment in utilities and communications to add to what has already been done. One of the problems it has to deal with is that much of the help already given came with political strings attached that will continue to cause trouble until removed. Drought, monsoon storms and starvation will remain a problem for a long time.
I've heard that bureaucratic, inhibiting regulations are part of what holds African countries back, particularly constraining entrepreneurship. Perhaps you've written on this previously. If not, I'd be interested in your perspective.
We cannot accurately measure economic growth in macro economic prices/vales. True economic progress is measured “physically” in the improvement of the material standard of living the population. Infrastructure, which was not emphasized in the article is the most essential physical input necessary for sustained economic growth.
Regards, lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
Re: critical minerals
Policy uncertainty is one of the biggest factors preventing investment from coming in. I personally know investors whose mines were seized by local business partners.
This also prevents investment in the downstream capacities. Local value addition regulations without proper infrastructure or consultation end up being a net loss (eg Zimbabwe with Lithium)
A lot of potential investment that could be headed to Africa ends up in much more expensive Australia and Canada. Which is a bit of a shame because African supply could really help stabilise some of these commodities.