Recognizing Somaliland
Ethiopia is on course to break a taboo on African territorial sovereignty; and what it means for the geopolitics of the Horn and wider Red Sea region
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I: Ethiopia is very likely on the road to recognizing Somaliland. That is a big deal.
Last November I argued that Ethiopia needs both reliable access to a seaport and a green-water navy. By population (120m), Ethiopia is the world’s largest landlocked country. Given the economic costs associated with being landlocked, it is hard to imagine the country having a vibrant economy without an efficient transportation and logistics network with links to world markets. At the same time, the geopolitical realities of Ethiopia’s neighborhood in the Horn and wider Red Sea region necessitate having the naval capacity to defend its commercial and security interests. In my analysis, I concluded that Ethiopia’s best option would be to expand its current arrangement with Djibouti, perhaps with a second new port in Tadjoura.
I had not anticipated the b…