Reelecting William Samoei Ruto

Electoral politics is a game of numbers, and right now the numbers and fundamentals favor William Ruto

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This is the second installment in a four part series to mark the first anniversary of the June 25, 2024 protests. You can read the first post here. The third post will speculate on how Ruto might lose in 2027, incumbency advantage notwithstanding. The final post will offer a general commentary on how the current moment fits within the wider historical political economy of Kenya. For background, be sure to read the four pieces from last year in the aftermath of the protests here, here, here, and here.

I: A brilliant campaigner, but a terrible administrator

William Ruto governs like an itinerant medieval monarch, and not like the president of a modern democratic state in the age of formal administrative-bureaucratic systems and mass media. He’s constantly on the move, eager to be seen and adored by crowds …