Three Billion Africans
How demographics will shape African states' economic and political futures
I: A historically empty continent
For much of history the continent of Africa has been largely underpopulated. For example, it wasn’t until the mid-1990s that the entire region’s population surpassed Europe’s (see below). Now the region is in the middle of a demographic boom that will see its population double over the next 50 years to more than 3 billion. By 2100 half all humans being born will be African. It is not an overstatement to claim that the world’s demographic future is in Africa.
What will a world of 3 billion Africans mean for African economics and politics?
Underpopulation, especially when one has scant or skewed links to the global economy, is bad for development. There is reason to believe that Africa’s historical (i.e., since the neolithic revolution) low population density partially explains the region’s economic and political underdevelopment.
Of course there were exceptions, with pristine state formation happening in areas that could support…