Why haven't markets disciplined public finance management practices in African states?
On the political of economy of debt and public finance
According to the IMF, as of May 2022 “16 African countries were at high risk of debt distress, and 7 were already in debt distress.” The regional debt-to-GDP ratio is well above 66%, meaning that ever more scarce resources will be channeled to servicing debt rather than funding schools and hospitals, building infrastructure, or subsidizing much-needed improvements in agricultural productivity.
The rise in unsustainable indebtedness comes barely two decades since the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI) of the 2000s — and evokes memories of the pain and suffering that characterized Africa’s lost long decade (circa 1980-1995).
One interesting feature of the current public debt crises in several African states is that contrary to (at least my) expectations, the confluence of competitive electoral politics and borrowing from private lenders does not appear to have disciplined fiscal policy. Nominally democratic Ghana and Zambia have found t…