Thanks for writing. I wasn't aware of how French African nations vote (or used to vote) alongside with France in lockstep. I've also been writing about Former French countries here. Take a look!
France is really in a difficult position. The truth is that they don’t have a coherent internal narrative about their purpose in Africa, which is fatal to imperial projects.
Further, it is pretty obvious that France is the cause of the problems it is allegedly trying to solve. I also wrote about this in February:
>Francophone African elites still consume a fair amount of French cultural products.
I believe this is widely underestimated.
Even the "rebel" leaders (and the part of the public opinion that support them) have a very France-centric worldview and are in many ways francophiles. So it could be very easy for any leader to obtain some symbolic/performative concessions here and there to convince their public opinion that they're not being stepped on.
Furthermore, this cultura lock-in has a much stronger effect than the CFA or any military treaty.
Could you share gross trade amounts instead of percentage share? I suspect, that trade volumes have increased, even inflation adjusted, while trade with China has increased so much proportionally to push their percentage down. China has increased trade massively with the world over, so that you could write this same article about any other country on a narrative of decreased percentage of trade. The story is not, these countries pulling away from their former trading partners, it’s that they move to China. If you wanted to make the argument that you have, you’d need to compare African trade with another established colonial power who has neutrally perused trade is the region, such as the UK. From your graph, they’ve declined at the same rate
Here are raw numbers for Ivory Coast, as a representative case. Even before accounting for inflation the trade volume hasn’t been growing. Consider that Ivory Coast’s economy doubled in size over the last decade.
A broader point would be that trade between Africa and the West has at best stagnated over the last couple decades, even as African economies have grown. In Kenya’s case, our trade with the US under AGOA is about the same as around two decades ago, despite a nearly tenfold increase in GDP (nominal, in USD). We now have more trade with Pakistan than the UK. China’s growth does not account for the fact that even in absolute terms, Africa’s trade with the West has been languishing.
What do you think of the possibility of Quebec/Canada filling in some of the (soft) power vacuum from France? Canada offers many of the same benefits - a liberal immigration program and an excellent education system - without France's historical baggage in the region.
Quebec's relative power within Canada has been falling, in economic and population terms. Increased immigration and integration with Francafrique could be a way of strengthening the position of French-Canadians within their own county.
Feb 26, 2023·edited Mar 28, 2023Liked by Ken Opalo
There has been a recent uptick in Canadian interest in West African policy matters: I’m thinking here of their attempts at brokering a solution to the Ambazonian crisis. Their mining companies have also long had a footprint. I believe they’re likely to remain marginal players simply because there wouldn’t be much in it for either side. Francophone countries have pressing governance, security and economic crises: many are facing jihadist insurgencies, climactic shocks, conflicts over resources, military coups, on top of the usual elite squabbling. Their choice of partners will probably reflect those priorities, and I don’t think a shared language and a couple of scholarships will change their calculus. From the other side, those countries are now desperate enough to call in Wagner mercs for security. Why would Canada want to wade into all that, and potentially upset relations with France?
Thanks for writing. I wasn't aware of how French African nations vote (or used to vote) alongside with France in lockstep. I've also been writing about Former French countries here. Take a look!
I wrote about Ivory Coast: https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/history-of-cote-divoireivory-coast
Gabon: https://open.substack.com/pub/yawboadu/p/the-economy-and-history-of-gabon?r=garki&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Guinea: https://open.substack.com/pub/yawboadu/p/the-economics-and-geopolitics-of?r=garki&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Central African Republic: https://open.substack.com/pub/yawboadu/p/the-economic-history-of-central-african?r=garki&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Morocco: https://open.substack.com/pub/yawboadu/p/moroccos-development-process?r=garki&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
France is really in a difficult position. The truth is that they don’t have a coherent internal narrative about their purpose in Africa, which is fatal to imperial projects.
Further, it is pretty obvious that France is the cause of the problems it is allegedly trying to solve. I also wrote about this in February:
https://thewaywardrabbler.substack.com/p/in-search-of-lost-empire
>Francophone African elites still consume a fair amount of French cultural products.
I believe this is widely underestimated.
Even the "rebel" leaders (and the part of the public opinion that support them) have a very France-centric worldview and are in many ways francophiles. So it could be very easy for any leader to obtain some symbolic/performative concessions here and there to convince their public opinion that they're not being stepped on.
Furthermore, this cultura lock-in has a much stronger effect than the CFA or any military treaty.
Could you share gross trade amounts instead of percentage share? I suspect, that trade volumes have increased, even inflation adjusted, while trade with China has increased so much proportionally to push their percentage down. China has increased trade massively with the world over, so that you could write this same article about any other country on a narrative of decreased percentage of trade. The story is not, these countries pulling away from their former trading partners, it’s that they move to China. If you wanted to make the argument that you have, you’d need to compare African trade with another established colonial power who has neutrally perused trade is the region, such as the UK. From your graph, they’ve declined at the same rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/france/imports/ivory-coast
https://tradingeconomics.com/ivory-coast/imports/france
Here are raw numbers for Ivory Coast, as a representative case. Even before accounting for inflation the trade volume hasn’t been growing. Consider that Ivory Coast’s economy doubled in size over the last decade.
A broader point would be that trade between Africa and the West has at best stagnated over the last couple decades, even as African economies have grown. In Kenya’s case, our trade with the US under AGOA is about the same as around two decades ago, despite a nearly tenfold increase in GDP (nominal, in USD). We now have more trade with Pakistan than the UK. China’s growth does not account for the fact that even in absolute terms, Africa’s trade with the West has been languishing.
What do you think of the possibility of Quebec/Canada filling in some of the (soft) power vacuum from France? Canada offers many of the same benefits - a liberal immigration program and an excellent education system - without France's historical baggage in the region.
Quebec's relative power within Canada has been falling, in economic and population terms. Increased immigration and integration with Francafrique could be a way of strengthening the position of French-Canadians within their own county.
There has been a recent uptick in Canadian interest in West African policy matters: I’m thinking here of their attempts at brokering a solution to the Ambazonian crisis. Their mining companies have also long had a footprint. I believe they’re likely to remain marginal players simply because there wouldn’t be much in it for either side. Francophone countries have pressing governance, security and economic crises: many are facing jihadist insurgencies, climactic shocks, conflicts over resources, military coups, on top of the usual elite squabbling. Their choice of partners will probably reflect those priorities, and I don’t think a shared language and a couple of scholarships will change their calculus. From the other side, those countries are now desperate enough to call in Wagner mercs for security. Why would Canada want to wade into all that, and potentially upset relations with France?
A wonderful writing and a deep analysis!
Congratulations Ken !
Worth sharing.Inspiring enough
A great read! Thanks for these insights Ken.