As Michael Pettis has pointed out in his interviews, this pattern is nothing new. New emerging countries have a overcapacity in infrastructure building which they want to export to developing countries. America did it in Latin America after WW1 and again (plus Africa and Asia) after WW2. Japan in 60s in Asia. Korea in 80s Middle East etc. Etc. It always ends up the same way. Exuberance followed by dramatically scaling down projects because the primary problem for developing countries is not financing, its culture and institutions.

Also you keep claiming foreigners have an irrational prejudice against African governments. They don't. African governments have all or many of the following problems such as a history of sovereign defaults, expropriation, nationalisation, renegotiation of contracts whenever a new party comes to power and weak growth in the past 10 years.

If Africa wants develop it needs fix its underlying institutions. It can't rely on foreigners. Plus most countries that industrialised primarily mobilised domestic savings to fuel investment.

If you feel so strongly about the investment opportunities in Africa why don't you personally buy the euro bonds being issued. The point isn't that you can move the needle with your professor salary but to put your money where your mouth is.

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Thanks for the investment advice and for being a regular reader/commenter.

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100% in agreement

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Interesting set of relationships that definitely flys under the radar as an American reader. I’m curious how the growing reach of India in the Middle East and the Arabian Sea play into African-Gulf relations. Seems like India is going to be a more important partner for gulf nations than any single African one. How do you think African nations play into the vision for the “New Middle East” that India, the Gulf Kingdoms, Israel, and the U.S are trying to build?

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I discover your blog, and the first article I've read has been nice. You have a new reader. Sorry for my english, is not my language and I am not used to use it; apologies in advance.

I would ask you a couple of questions partially related with your article.

1-¿How do you see the chances of a conflict in Ethiopia (or near by) in a short-middle future?

I say it, because taking a look inside the country we can see a lot of conflicts and an increase (or at least, not expected decrease after war) of violence from ethnics groups. The killings are frequent, and the support of the amharics armed groups hat helped the government in the previous war has been lost. Now, even this groups has taken a position against the central government and are added to the already existents. Also, the porblem of food stills on the country and it is huge and terrible, especially, in the Tigray region, that is not in peace and could experience a reflorishment of conflict. The transports and logistics are been affected, for what I know, there are kidnappings, thiefs and roads thare not been used. In relation with this and knowing a bit about Africa, is not weird or catastrophistic to think of a transfer of the militar state personal to those groups, or maybe the adoption of certain practices like extorsion, pression, etc... that later can increase to something else.

Also, and maybe because all of this, the government is being critized, especially on the regions. We must remember that the "emergency state" is keep ruling.

Also, if we take a look outside, we can see the neighbours in Sudan (where the United Arab Emirates are also smelling and playing his rol, like you expose, in an higher level than i thought) and the civil war. We can remember all the issues with the Renaissence Dam and the hostility with Sudan and Egypt about it. Finally, the attempt for find a open way to the sea has created the conflict with Somalia, that has provocated a reject from the african countries, and now the support of a big player in the game like Turkey (if we look the religious sphere of the issue, we can see and isolated Ethiopia).

Honestly, I don't know how to look this, because I understansd the needs of sea acces for the country if wants to grow, but looking the internal situation is to add a new "enemy and problem" to the current state of things. However, knowing how the mind of politics works, it is probable that an external goal and threat (both) could distract or cohesion (both) the population.

2-¿What is doing Turkey in Africa and how relates with EUA?

Thanks in advanced.

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