How Kenya’s opposition can defeat President William Ruto in 2027

In order to win in 2027 the opposition has to be bigger than the sum of its regional components; and engineer a wave election

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This is the third installment in a four part series to mark the first anniversary of the June 25, 2024 protests. The first post discussed the state of the Kenyan economy under President William Ruto. The second post argued that despite his ongoing political troubles President Ruto still has a good shot at reelection in 2027. The final post will offer a general commentary on how the current moment fits within the wider historical political economy of Kenya. For background, be sure to read the four pieces from last year in the aftermath of the protests here, here, here, and here.

I: A formidable but certainly beatable incumbent

In the previous post I argued that the fundamentals favor President William Ruto’s reelection in 2027. The economy is unlikely to experience a contraction over the next two years, wi…