Well written Prof. A few observations:

1. On the proximate cause and Abiy's politics, it keeps coming out that he was not a unitarian, but playing political games of survival, due to the support he had from Amhara nationalists.

2. The TPLF did try to form alliances with other regional movements, e.g. OLA and Benishangul Gumuz. There was even a coalition that was launched in Washington D.C., late 2021.

3. The underlying cause of the conflict is truly an elite-power struggle, but also the failure of the TPLF to democratise Ethiopia.

4. I would not speak in a confidently optimistic way about the Pretoria Agreement and Narobi Declaration yet.

5. Abiy still faces real threats from Oromia, mostly due to land-grabbing and a feeling of betrayal. This could strongly affect the future of Ethiopia.

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Jan 27, 2023·edited Jan 27, 2023

Great read, thanks.

Ruud Elmendorp

Correspondent Africa



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