A Historical Political Economy of Kenya

A high-achiever country repeatedly let down by mediocre leadership

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This is the final installment in a four part series to mark the first anniversary of the June 25, 2024 protests. It offers a general commentary on how the current moment fits within the wider historical political economy of Kenya.

The first post discussed the state of the Kenyan economy under President William Ruto. The second post argued that despite his ongoing political troubles President Ruto still has a good shot at reelection in 2027. The third post speculates on how Ruto might lose in 2027, incumbency advantage notwithstanding. For background, be sure to read the four pieces from last year in the aftermath of the protests here, here, here, and here.

I: Falling behind where it really matters

This post places Kenya’s economic stagnation over the last two decades — which is partially responsible for rec…