Ethiopia just wants to negotiate, it would do so with Mogadishu if the latter had control over the entire somalia.
States should at least be functional, otherwise, actors will just deal with whoever is in charge, thus effectively undermining the power of the de jure state even without intending to do so.
Ethiopia wants and needs access to a sea port, Somaliland is on a quest for legitimacy, and Mogadishu lacks the capacity to block this aspiration.
I cross-posted this with this comment: "Ken Opalo is terrific--the best explainer of African politics in the business." I found this so helpful and informative. I've seen nothing, but nothing, explaining this elsewhere.
This may be an insane idea, but one thing I’ve been exploring has been whether or not the Commonwealth of Nations could play a role in helping recognise Somaliland, or at least achieve the gains from doing so. Essentially, what it could do is alter its constitution to allow non-state regions such as Scotland, Quebec, Cook Islands etc to join. This would have value in its own right, however it could also provide a way to smuggle Somaliland in through the back door of an IGO nobody really cares about, and in a way that makes it very clear it does not amount to recognition of the state. From there, the Commonwealth could then act as a pseudo-IMF/World Bank, facilitating more in depth development and diplomatic relations in ways that are framed as Commonwealth programs rather than inter-state ones (eg a ‘Commonwealth passport that unambiguously has nothing to do with outright statehood, arrangements for services trade, student programs etc). Between the UK, Canada, Australia etc there is plenty of financial muscle (at least relative to the size of Somaliland’s economy), it would give the Commonwealth a better reason to exist, it would significantly aid Somaliland’s development and also help consolidate it democratically with closer ties to the west. Given what’s going on in the Red Sea at the moment there is certainly an argument for the UK etc paying more attention to Somaliland, and this could be a way of doing so that doesn’t upset Mogadishu and others as much
Given bangladesh managed to do unilateral succession from Pakistan, can't Somaliland use the same precident to leave Somalia? Why bother hold back a functional nation to protect the fragility of other African nations?
Good to read! But Somaliland's case is quite different from Eritrea case, these case could not be more opposite.
1. Status
Somaliland got its independence from Great Britain 26 June 1960, recognised by 36/37 countries including Britain and Republic of China and united with Somalia who got its independence from Italy trusteeship in July 01st 1960.
While Eritrea never got its independence from Britain Military Administration.
2. Unification
Somaliland United with Somalia by the will of Somaliland people with out external influence, However the 7th session of UN General Assembly determined the federation of Ethiopian and Eritrean People, in fact Most Eritrians opposed the federation and unification with Ethiopian empire.
According to the 2005 AU ( African Union) fact finding mission of Somaliland re-recognition, it is declared that Somaliland has a unique case and to be re-recognized. Thus your article is not correctly captured all facts regarding the union between Somalinad and Somalia, They are two different countries who agreed to unite in 1960 to form the Somali republic and that union malfunction after the collapse of the central government of Somali republic in 1991. However, the solution and the way forward is different story.
Tanzania, Gabon, Zambia all recognized the secessionist Republic of Biafra during the Nigeria/Biafra War of 1967 to 1970. So, there is a precedent.
Secondly, in year 2005, the African Union raised a team to study whether Somaliland's independence should be recognized on the basis that Somaliland was a UN recognized state in 1960 before its ill-fated decision to merge with war-ravaged Southern Somalia.
The AU team recommended in 2005 that Somaliland should be recognized, but countries like Egypt and your Kenya blocked it. I don't agree with you that Kenya will participate in any dismemberment of the already fragmented Somalia.
What is happening right now between Somaliland and Ethiopia isn't new. During the administration of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's attitude towards the government in Hargeisa was more or less a de facto recognition of Somaliland. Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed is merely formalizing what had already de facto existed since Meles Zenawi recognized that Djibouti's penchant for charging ludicrously high fees to exploit Ethiopia's desperation for sea access was unsustainable and that there was need for the Berbera alternative
the port deal is a gain for the economic development of the Horn and in south Somalia's interests as well. the port deal does not need to be followed by recognition of somaliland independence. a better course of action would be further economic integration of ethiopia and somaliland and steps toward political reintegration of somaliland and somalia.
Fantastic read! I never knew much about Somaliland so I really appreciate the background and contextualization
I have been puzzling over this issue; thanks for the explanation.
Ethiopia just wants to negotiate, it would do so with Mogadishu if the latter had control over the entire somalia.
States should at least be functional, otherwise, actors will just deal with whoever is in charge, thus effectively undermining the power of the de jure state even without intending to do so.
Ethiopia wants and needs access to a sea port, Somaliland is on a quest for legitimacy, and Mogadishu lacks the capacity to block this aspiration.
Ken, that was as riveting as it was enlightening. Thank you for writing.
Well written, and thank you for the great info!!
Very interesting, thank you!
I cross-posted this with this comment: "Ken Opalo is terrific--the best explainer of African politics in the business." I found this so helpful and informative. I've seen nothing, but nothing, explaining this elsewhere.
This may be an insane idea, but one thing I’ve been exploring has been whether or not the Commonwealth of Nations could play a role in helping recognise Somaliland, or at least achieve the gains from doing so. Essentially, what it could do is alter its constitution to allow non-state regions such as Scotland, Quebec, Cook Islands etc to join. This would have value in its own right, however it could also provide a way to smuggle Somaliland in through the back door of an IGO nobody really cares about, and in a way that makes it very clear it does not amount to recognition of the state. From there, the Commonwealth could then act as a pseudo-IMF/World Bank, facilitating more in depth development and diplomatic relations in ways that are framed as Commonwealth programs rather than inter-state ones (eg a ‘Commonwealth passport that unambiguously has nothing to do with outright statehood, arrangements for services trade, student programs etc). Between the UK, Canada, Australia etc there is plenty of financial muscle (at least relative to the size of Somaliland’s economy), it would give the Commonwealth a better reason to exist, it would significantly aid Somaliland’s development and also help consolidate it democratically with closer ties to the west. Given what’s going on in the Red Sea at the moment there is certainly an argument for the UK etc paying more attention to Somaliland, and this could be a way of doing so that doesn’t upset Mogadishu and others as much
Somalia should look to China’s one country two system for inspiration. Just a suggestion.
Given bangladesh managed to do unilateral succession from Pakistan, can't Somaliland use the same precident to leave Somalia? Why bother hold back a functional nation to protect the fragility of other African nations?
Good to read! But Somaliland's case is quite different from Eritrea case, these case could not be more opposite.
1. Status
Somaliland got its independence from Great Britain 26 June 1960, recognised by 36/37 countries including Britain and Republic of China and united with Somalia who got its independence from Italy trusteeship in July 01st 1960.
While Eritrea never got its independence from Britain Military Administration.
2. Unification
Somaliland United with Somalia by the will of Somaliland people with out external influence, However the 7th session of UN General Assembly determined the federation of Ethiopian and Eritrean People, in fact Most Eritrians opposed the federation and unification with Ethiopian empire.
According to the 2005 AU ( African Union) fact finding mission of Somaliland re-recognition, it is declared that Somaliland has a unique case and to be re-recognized. Thus your article is not correctly captured all facts regarding the union between Somalinad and Somalia, They are two different countries who agreed to unite in 1960 to form the Somali republic and that union malfunction after the collapse of the central government of Somali republic in 1991. However, the solution and the way forward is different story.
Another brilliant essay, Ken...thank you! @Mmerikani.
Tanzania, Gabon, Zambia all recognized the secessionist Republic of Biafra during the Nigeria/Biafra War of 1967 to 1970. So, there is a precedent.
Secondly, in year 2005, the African Union raised a team to study whether Somaliland's independence should be recognized on the basis that Somaliland was a UN recognized state in 1960 before its ill-fated decision to merge with war-ravaged Southern Somalia.
The AU team recommended in 2005 that Somaliland should be recognized, but countries like Egypt and your Kenya blocked it. I don't agree with you that Kenya will participate in any dismemberment of the already fragmented Somalia.
What is happening right now between Somaliland and Ethiopia isn't new. During the administration of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's attitude towards the government in Hargeisa was more or less a de facto recognition of Somaliland. Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed is merely formalizing what had already de facto existed since Meles Zenawi recognized that Djibouti's penchant for charging ludicrously high fees to exploit Ethiopia's desperation for sea access was unsustainable and that there was need for the Berbera alternative
the port deal is a gain for the economic development of the Horn and in south Somalia's interests as well. the port deal does not need to be followed by recognition of somaliland independence. a better course of action would be further economic integration of ethiopia and somaliland and steps toward political reintegration of somaliland and somalia.