I’ll be blunt on this piece. This is the usual blather that we read in newspapers and social media threads, but done in a clever way.
Especially the first part of the article is very very pedestrian in argument.
You seem not to have studied the evolution of Kenya’s politics since the advent of the constitution of 2010. Post 2013, it is no longer feasible for a president to lock himself in statehouse and show up in public once a while whenever they are bored.
Why the many meetings at statehouse (which you again wrongly assume to be wooing meetings)? One thing that was very clear in the decade of Uhuru is the continuous friction between leaders and the presidency. And the reason was simple, there was no engagement between elected leaders and the presidency. Leaders were only invited to statehouse to be 'lectured' and to be coerced into doing strange things like handing over the administration of Nairobi county.
In short only Ruto and Raila know how the Kenyan voter behaves.
Sadly, Ruto and Raila are in the same camp.
The 'mind of a Kenyan Voter' is something top politicians know that so many people don't grasp.
How Igathe is not voted in but Sakaja. How Sonko Waititu get elected by the so called ' top 2 counties in Human Capital and urbanization'
Peter Kenneth of 2013, uwesmake slogan, is more of a politician than Maraga/Matiangi of 2027.Musalia of 2013 is more of a politician than Matiangi.
Both Kenneth and Musalia in 2013 got less than 3% of votes cast. That is the clearest showing of the mind of a Kenyan voter.
Ruto re-election hinges on Raila Odinga. Only Raila has the capacity,knowhow,funds,reach and political party to become Kenyan president.
Sadly, but cleverly, William Ruto took him off the stage early on. He knew Baba was the only alternative leadership.
Lastly, the only way for opposition to topple Ruto is formation of ONE POLITICAL PARTY. 1.Not a coalition. But One Big Political Party.
Jubilee Party was crafted for this in 2017, Ruto himself forced other parties to collapse and join New Jubilee Party.2002 Narc was crafted for this. 2007 ODM pentagon was crafted for this.
Also in tandem, William Ruto biggest problem is which political party he will use for 2027. Will he make same mistakes like what Kibaki did in 2007, in using PNU? Which fumbled massively. Which was formed late, and without any tactical know-how of to retain power.
In Short, to predict who will win 2027 elections,is to see who will formulate the strongest party. Whoever does it wins it.
Excellent analysis, as always but Opalo misses the mark on one key point. Ruto’s regime isn’t sliding into cynicism; cynicism was the strategy from day one. It runs in the veins of every UDA grandee; from Ruto to Ndii to their erstwhile comrade Gachagua. They’ve always embraced a very shallow, transactional vision of Kenya, and they still do. That's why they couldn't see June 25 2024 coming and hence Ndii's tounts that really kicked things off. This is still their Achilles heel.
The only way to defeat them is by offering a bigger, bolder vision for the country's future. Ruto can and (and I believe) will be beaten but only if Gen Z gets off their screens and brings the fight to the ground with a generational campaign to reset this country.
I am calling it the "Bendera Movement" and it’s coming to a polling station near you very soon.
It's that or the country stays in the hands of the laziest proto-fascists on the planet!
If you could indulge a bit of disingenuity, would love a piece on the "proper" arguments against a second Ruto term. It is rather obvious that the administration has failed to meet even the lowest of expectations, but I am curious if you can put down in words what is uniquely disqualifying about Ruto and his administration and why we all feel so disappointed and/or concerned about the country. Is there anything beyond the points you make in the first part of this article?
Here are my thoughts together with potential rebuttals he/they may make: the state of the economy (which he will blame on his predecessors and the global economy); the mishandled changes to health, education, tax policy, affordable housing etc. (he'll say he needs more time and bring back the "upper deck" argument in response to any criticism of affordable housing); the corruption and clientelism (which he'll say is nothing new in Kenyan politics or even more cynically, that both are needed to keep the country in one piece); police brutality and heavy handed treatment of protesters (he will scream "law and order"); general disdain of democratic norms and processes; the arrogance and utter lack of ambition or imagination in his team (doubt he cares).
Utter nonsense! The only way Ruto wins is if the opposition divides.All other narratives can only apply to your relatives, sad but that's the harsh reality.
While Ruto needs cynicism to win, the Opposition and Gen Z have to employ a campaign of massive hope through a lot of civic engagement (especially urban areas) and online mobilization. They, however, must have an implementation framework to generate more jobs in the first 24 months if they win or the electorate will become more acidic to them than they have been to Ruto. Agro processing and manufacturing must be kick-started as if we're in war for any regime to pacify the zealous youth.
"Of course a lot can change in two years. The opposition might wisen up and craft a formidable united challenge against President Ruto (see next post), or the economy could take a turn for the worse."
I am very interested to see your take on the opposition's moves thus far, and the projected mobilization of the united opposition front. From the current status, it seems rather disorganized, and prone to internal rivalry. Do you expect them to reach an agreement of sorts and rally behind a specific leader?
The author correctly concludes that Ruto is likely to win the 2027 election. However, ironically, he suffers the same condition he accuses the 'new entrants' of. He fails to appreciate the unique reality of Kenyan politics, and because of it, draws all the wrong conclusions about Ruto's politics.
Ruto is a practical politician. He goes to the people and interacts with them, while the 'new entrants' sit in boardrooms running social media campaigns that will never reach the rural Kenyan. Ruto donates to churches and thus considered generous, while the rest are seen to be selfish.
Ruto is flowing with the current, while the rest are swimming against it. That is why Ruto will get an opportunity to effect his vision and the rest, like the author, will be left to pontificate.
It is, but the negative opinions he derives are poorly constructed. Claiming Ruto is a bad administrator because he hosts other leaders at SH or is a micromanager. That is so poor.
The previous president failed to consult and abandoned the governance controls and as a result the economy was on its death bed by the time he left. He had zero accountability, famously asking Kenyans, "What do you want me to do?".
I’ll be blunt on this piece. This is the usual blather that we read in newspapers and social media threads, but done in a clever way.
Especially the first part of the article is very very pedestrian in argument.
You seem not to have studied the evolution of Kenya’s politics since the advent of the constitution of 2010. Post 2013, it is no longer feasible for a president to lock himself in statehouse and show up in public once a while whenever they are bored.
Why the many meetings at statehouse (which you again wrongly assume to be wooing meetings)? One thing that was very clear in the decade of Uhuru is the continuous friction between leaders and the presidency. And the reason was simple, there was no engagement between elected leaders and the presidency. Leaders were only invited to statehouse to be 'lectured' and to be coerced into doing strange things like handing over the administration of Nairobi county.
In short only Ruto and Raila know how the Kenyan voter behaves.
Sadly, Ruto and Raila are in the same camp.
The 'mind of a Kenyan Voter' is something top politicians know that so many people don't grasp.
How Igathe is not voted in but Sakaja. How Sonko Waititu get elected by the so called ' top 2 counties in Human Capital and urbanization'
Peter Kenneth of 2013, uwesmake slogan, is more of a politician than Maraga/Matiangi of 2027.Musalia of 2013 is more of a politician than Matiangi.
Both Kenneth and Musalia in 2013 got less than 3% of votes cast. That is the clearest showing of the mind of a Kenyan voter.
Ruto re-election hinges on Raila Odinga. Only Raila has the capacity,knowhow,funds,reach and political party to become Kenyan president.
Sadly, but cleverly, William Ruto took him off the stage early on. He knew Baba was the only alternative leadership.
Lastly, the only way for opposition to topple Ruto is formation of ONE POLITICAL PARTY. 1.Not a coalition. But One Big Political Party.
Jubilee Party was crafted for this in 2017, Ruto himself forced other parties to collapse and join New Jubilee Party.2002 Narc was crafted for this. 2007 ODM pentagon was crafted for this.
Also in tandem, William Ruto biggest problem is which political party he will use for 2027. Will he make same mistakes like what Kibaki did in 2007, in using PNU? Which fumbled massively. Which was formed late, and without any tactical know-how of to retain power.
In Short, to predict who will win 2027 elections,is to see who will formulate the strongest party. Whoever does it wins it.
Excellent analysis, as always but Opalo misses the mark on one key point. Ruto’s regime isn’t sliding into cynicism; cynicism was the strategy from day one. It runs in the veins of every UDA grandee; from Ruto to Ndii to their erstwhile comrade Gachagua. They’ve always embraced a very shallow, transactional vision of Kenya, and they still do. That's why they couldn't see June 25 2024 coming and hence Ndii's tounts that really kicked things off. This is still their Achilles heel.
The only way to defeat them is by offering a bigger, bolder vision for the country's future. Ruto can and (and I believe) will be beaten but only if Gen Z gets off their screens and brings the fight to the ground with a generational campaign to reset this country.
I am calling it the "Bendera Movement" and it’s coming to a polling station near you very soon.
It's that or the country stays in the hands of the laziest proto-fascists on the planet!
No thanks.
If you could indulge a bit of disingenuity, would love a piece on the "proper" arguments against a second Ruto term. It is rather obvious that the administration has failed to meet even the lowest of expectations, but I am curious if you can put down in words what is uniquely disqualifying about Ruto and his administration and why we all feel so disappointed and/or concerned about the country. Is there anything beyond the points you make in the first part of this article?
Here are my thoughts together with potential rebuttals he/they may make: the state of the economy (which he will blame on his predecessors and the global economy); the mishandled changes to health, education, tax policy, affordable housing etc. (he'll say he needs more time and bring back the "upper deck" argument in response to any criticism of affordable housing); the corruption and clientelism (which he'll say is nothing new in Kenyan politics or even more cynically, that both are needed to keep the country in one piece); police brutality and heavy handed treatment of protesters (he will scream "law and order"); general disdain of democratic norms and processes; the arrogance and utter lack of ambition or imagination in his team (doubt he cares).
Utter nonsense! The only way Ruto wins is if the opposition divides.All other narratives can only apply to your relatives, sad but that's the harsh reality.
While Ruto needs cynicism to win, the Opposition and Gen Z have to employ a campaign of massive hope through a lot of civic engagement (especially urban areas) and online mobilization. They, however, must have an implementation framework to generate more jobs in the first 24 months if they win or the electorate will become more acidic to them than they have been to Ruto. Agro processing and manufacturing must be kick-started as if we're in war for any regime to pacify the zealous youth.
"Of course a lot can change in two years. The opposition might wisen up and craft a formidable united challenge against President Ruto (see next post), or the economy could take a turn for the worse."
I am very interested to see your take on the opposition's moves thus far, and the projected mobilization of the united opposition front. From the current status, it seems rather disorganized, and prone to internal rivalry. Do you expect them to reach an agreement of sorts and rally behind a specific leader?
The author correctly concludes that Ruto is likely to win the 2027 election. However, ironically, he suffers the same condition he accuses the 'new entrants' of. He fails to appreciate the unique reality of Kenyan politics, and because of it, draws all the wrong conclusions about Ruto's politics.
Ruto is a practical politician. He goes to the people and interacts with them, while the 'new entrants' sit in boardrooms running social media campaigns that will never reach the rural Kenyan. Ruto donates to churches and thus considered generous, while the rest are seen to be selfish.
Ruto is flowing with the current, while the rest are swimming against it. That is why Ruto will get an opportunity to effect his vision and the rest, like the author, will be left to pontificate.
...that is the central argument of this article
It is, but the negative opinions he derives are poorly constructed. Claiming Ruto is a bad administrator because he hosts other leaders at SH or is a micromanager. That is so poor.
The previous president failed to consult and abandoned the governance controls and as a result the economy was on its death bed by the time he left. He had zero accountability, famously asking Kenyans, "What do you want me to do?".
https://www.africanistperspective.com/p/on-the-kenyan-economy-under-william